Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on the deepest red areas of North Carolina. Hundreds are dead and missing in the region. Destroyed roads and bridges and lack of water and electricity will make voting a challenge in a region that contributed a net of 231,000 votes for Donald Trump’s 2020 margin of 74,000 votes in the state.
With early voting set to begin on Oct. 17, the storm’s aftermath could have significant electoral implications. Right now, 61 early voting sites are affected, and it remains nearly impossible to access parts of Western North Carolina. Infrastructure is expected to remain down for several weeks, extending well into the early voting period.
The Democratic response to the hurricane’s voting challenges will reportedly include expanding mail-in voting, using drop boxes, and setting up pop-up voting sites. There are also new rules being considered regarding provisional ballots to accommodate those displaced by the disaster.
However, the concern is that measures designed to help voters in hurricane-affected areas might be applied across the state, particularly in densely populated regions that are less affected, creating the potential for partisan advantage. There is a high probability of a sue-and-settle lawsuit on 14th Amendment equal protection grounds brought by the likes of Marc Elias that would argue that loosened voting rules in the West must be applied evenly throughout North Carolina — even in urban areas untouched by the hurricane. This was the same tactic used successfully in 2020 with COVID-19 as the excuse to change election rules.
As Amb. Rahm Emanuel, former Chicago mayor and chief of staff to President Barack Obama, famously observed: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” What’s rarely mentioned is the second half of Emanuel’s statement: “And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.”
If Harris flips North Carolina, she wins the White House.
The GOP, recognizing these concerns, is mobilizing the state legislature to push back against some of these changes. However, with early voting fast approaching, the Republican effort faces a race against time. There is also uncertainty about what additional changes may be implemented by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper or the North Carolina State Board of Elections, potentially bypassing the legislature entirely.
Of course, weather can have a significant political impact — ask any mayor whose town was hit by heavy snow and didn’t have the streets cleared soon after.
While federal assistance has lagged, state-level responses have been swift. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis immediately deployed the National Guard to assist neighboring states. Some 19 states have sent in search and rescue teams. These local responses often have a much more immediate and visible impact compared to the federal government’s slower bureaucratic processes.
Meanwhile, a potent tool of federal relief at Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg), North Carolina, one of America’s largest military installations, sat impassive, its massive fleet of helicopters and thousands of soldiers, idle, until Biden called up 1,000 soldiers more than five days into the disaster.
Further complicating matters, the FCC’s cancellation of its contract with Starlink last December left hard-hit rural areas vulnerable to prolonged communication outages. Starlink is now providing emergency satellite terminals, but if the contract had remained in place, it could have significantly bolstered emergency communications. The cancellation was speculated to have been politically motivated due to Elon Musk’s opposition to the Biden administration.
Yet, one might be forgiven for thinking the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Hurricane Helene was swift and flawless — especially comparing it to the prevailing leftwing media’s coverage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Then, President George W. Bush was widely criticized for the delayed federal response, with the media highlighting Bush’s aerial flyover of New Orleans as a symbol of detachment.
The media’s portrayal of Bush as uncaring hit hard in the 2006 midterms with Republicans losing both houses of Congress.
When Superstorm Sandy slammed into New York and New Jersey just before the 2012 elections, the National Guard was deployed to set up and run precinct voting locations out of tents. President Barack Obama benefited from a highly visible bipartisan hug from then-Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey a week before election day.
Amid the destruction and misery, Hurricane Helene’s full political punch is still to be determined — but understand this, it will influence the 2024 election.